Sunday, July 3, 2016

"Monday is Independence Day."

"...somehow the facts don’t jive with the narrative.  If they contemplate it at all, they find they’re unable to reconcile that their fundamental rights have been trampled on by their own government.

Uncompromising independence, rugged individualism, and unbounded personal freedom were once ideals essential to the American character...

In practice, the principles that gave rise to the great myths and legends of America died long ago.  Freedom.  Liberty.  Independence.  Limited representative government.  Sound money.  Private property rights.  A humble and esteemable populace.  Avoidance of foreign entanglements.  Rafting down the Mississippi River.

These concepts, in reality, faded away from daily life over the last century like stars in the morning.  Over the last 100 years Washington has become a sort of money sucking vortex.  At the Capitol Building sits a cadre of legislatures and an army of staffers working up new laws to take your money.

New rules, proposed rules, and notices are published daily in the Federal Register.  A quick read of the daily publication – presently about 80,000 pages – will enlighten and alarm you to the vast array of agencies, departments, and commissions and their vast array of daily nonsense.

...for one day we’ll not grumble that our government is broke and our leaders are imposters.  Nor will we complain that an unelected committee creates digital monetary credits with a few key strokes and then uses it to make interest bearing loans to the government.

...In essence, America today is a land of absurdity where lunatics thrive and screwballs flourish.  It’s a place where freaks and weirdos succeed in symbiotic disharmony.  It’s a place where someone like Kim Kardashian can get rich by publicly behaving like an idiot."
" of this moment, about 550 million "missing barrels" [of oil] are unaccounted for "apparently produced but not consumed and not visible in the inventory statistics."

..."could it be that the U.S. demand that's helped drive a near doubling of oil prices since mid-February was illusory?"

..."It's the discrepancy between the two sets of data that gives cause for concern." looks like U.S. gasoline demand is soaring.

...But the latest monthly data, showing the numbers for April, paint a very different picture. They show U.S. gasoline consumption falling between March and April and imply a downward revision of April demand of 260,000 barrels a day, or 2.7 percent, from the preliminary figures. That might not seem a lot. But when the same agency forecasts that U.S. gasoline demand will grow overall this year by just 170,000 barrels a day, it's enough to change the whole outlook for one of the few countries where demand is robust. much as 1.2 million barrels in "demand" is about to be taken out of the demand side of the equation since this was oil that China was importing to fill up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is now near completion.

...Which means that with Chinese demand growth about to tumble, it was all up to the US to provide the global demand boost. The problem, however, is that if indeed the EIA was overly optimistic in its weekly gasoline and crude demand estimates (or merely "cooking the books"), then once the monthly reality catches up with the weekly (fake) euphoria, the oil-trading algos will be slammed with a triple whammy of rising supply as Canadian and Nigerian production disruptions become a thing of the past, while surging Chinese and US demand is exposed to have been the result of one-time events and/or accounting gimmicks.

...since even the central banks admit the global economy is now in far worse shape than it was a year ago, expect a similar repricing of the crude reality in the coming weeks."