Monday, June 5, 2017

It's fake; "93% of the new jobs reported since 2008 were added through the business birth and death model"

"Data on establishment births and deaths point to an ongoing decrease in entrepreneurship"

There’s been some suggestions that the payrolls report
had been distorted by the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics
accounts for business births and deaths

There’s been talk that the birth/death model,
a little-noted detail in the monthly report,
came in with a huge statistical discrepancy...

In a conference call with reporters, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis
...insisted the BLS number was correct
and that no changes would be needed

Market Reaction Hints At False Note In Jobs Report
Bob O'Brien
Barrons, June 5, 2009

"The BLS applies a mysterious “birth/death” adjustment to their survey results to account for business openings and closings.  While the payroll data was adjusted substantially, the “birth/death” adjustments were left unchanged.  In 2008 and 2009, the BLS’ “birth/death” adjustment added 904,000 and 882,000 jobs, respectively, for a total of 1.79 million.  By way of comparison, in 2006 and 2007, the BLS’ “birth/death” adjustment added 964,000 and 1.13 million jobs, respectively.   We find it highly unlikely that in 2008 and 2009, during the worst recession since the 1930’s, more businesses opened than closed netting 1.79 million jobs.

Get your facts first
and then you can distort them as much as you please

Mark Twain

In our opinion, flawed BLS survey results, month-after-month, do the public a huge disservice.  While its results point to a slowly recovering economy, TrimTabs’ results point to a dangerously weak economy.

TrimTabs via The Business Insider

The great majority of mankind
are satisfied with appearance as though they were realities
and are often more influenced by the things that seem
than those that are

Niccolo Machiavelli