Tuesday, February 10, 2015

An analysis of who would win, based on who actually voted in 2013 in Trudy Wade's 7 Districts

District 1, Black Democrat

District 2, Black Democrat

District 3, White Republican

District 4, White Democrat

District 5, White Democrat or Republican with most unaffiliated votes IMO.
Democrat 2,357
Republican 1,605
UNA 848
3,795 White
925 Black

Voter turnout is so bad at that edge of town, 
it definitely skews things. 

But frankly, the demographics of his new district 
are almost the same as his current one, 
only the new D5 has a higher percentage of republicans.

So I think Tony is safe.

Amanda Lehmert

District 6, White Democrat
2,512 White
839 Black
No way Skip Alston could win it, IMO.

District 7, White or Black Democrat
Democrat 2,321
Republican 372
UNA 521
1,622 Blacks who voted in 2013
1,511 Whites who voted in 2013



An overwhelming sum of campaign cash
could sway District 7 to just about anyone.

Chances are, a white, well funded Democratic District 7 Candidate
would win against a poorly funded Black candidate.

For example, Sharon Hightower won by spending about $280 in 2013


Mike Barber won and spent about $26,364 at large.

If a candidate backed by the good old boys network backed a white democratic candidate in District 7, that candidate would most likely win over a less as well funded black candidate.
I believe the advocates of District 7 being a solid black district are mistaken.

2 of 7 = 28.6% most likely black winners.

I consider 4 of 9 spots African American,
when including Marykay = 44.44%

Marykay spent about $5,888

I believe Trudy Wade's redistricting plan would/could reduce minority Greensboro City Council representation by 16%.