Monday, June 29, 2015

Greece Monday; Some Recent Hartzman Economic and Financial Market Links

Institutional selling versus "Private Client" = Same as 2008 = Most in Greensboro are clueless

If the Greece situation affects your money
by not being contained within European markets, 
our financial and real estate markets may take it on the chin
if it gets out of control

Something wicked this way comes, which will affect corporate spending in Greensboro; Quarterly US Corporate Pre-tax Earnings (US$bn) and S&P 500: 1Q’80 – 1Q’15

We are operating within the largest global financial bubble
in the history of modern mankind.

Motor Vehicle Inventories, Buying Climate and Business Inventories to Sales = Financial Bubble

Many of our local oligarchs 
are operating on the assumption they are geniuses, 
when they have really been artificially propped up
by the world's central banks with pretend money.

Piedmont Triad Real Estate Top Watch; "Wells Fargo Building SOLD"

Much of the money intended for GPAC
is in the stock and bond markets,
which the Community Foundation says is locked in.

Greensboro Commercial Real Estate Market Top; "[Roy Carroll] ups stake in downtown with $42M multifamily acquisition"

If we take a hit on sales tax revenues, 
the City's budget is bogus.

Red Flags

If/when our local top end consumers pull back on spending, 
a bunch of relatively newer, highly indebted restaurants
may go under pretty quickly.

"Top Fidelity stockpicker: Financial markets are ‘colossally artificial"

Don't be surprised to see Roy Carroll's Bellemeade Village
and other not so far along projects to stop in their tracks
if the banks pull back lending and credit lines.

Swim at your own risk; Percentage of Unprofitable IPOs and some other pretty scary economic indicators of what's coming

Monetary allocations to expensive discretionary spending,
like elective dental and medical procedures
may retard rapidly and harm our local economy 
if it looks like there's not much the Federal Reserve can do, 
now that they're about out of ammunition.

"What do you think the problem is?"

Under water developers/businesses will likely be clamoring 
for taxpayer funded assistance/bailouts
from their purchased politicians at the City.


Mass layoffs in the professional services areas
may increase dramatically, like lawyers and United Guarantee
if/when our real estate market gets hit, 
coincident with construction industry employment.

Q2 guidance
China, the last three months;

"The US economy has lost some momentum after an initial bounce-back from weather-related weakness at the start of the year"

Factory Orders; Down 6% Year Over Year; "8 negative prints in the last 9 months"

China Non-Performing Loans Change

Martenson and Hussman's latest

"Consumer Comfort among the highest income earners in America"