Wednesday, July 13, 2016

IEA July 13, 2016: "Gasoline Glut Could Cause Oil Price Rout"

"Oil prices have been crushed over the past two years because of a glut of production.

...another glut that has built up and has stubbornly refused to fall threatens another oil price downturn.

In its July Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency warned about shockingly high levels of refined products sitting in storage. Gasoline, diesel and heating oil are built up to such high levels in so many parts of the world, that a sharp rise in crude oil prices is unlikely in the short run.

...“the existence of very high oil stocks is a threat to the recent stability of oil prices.”

Huge traffic jams of tankers have formed around the world
with some 200 million barrels of oil either waiting to be loaded or delivered
as ports struggle to cope with record volumes in perhaps the most visible sign of the global oil glut.

Hat Tip Roch

Almost all of the over 660 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), 
the largest tankers in use to transport seaborne oil, 
are used to ship crude between the Middle East and Asia’s consumption hubs
around India and the Far East. 

The map [below] shows all of these 
super tankers in operation on April 11;

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/1/1253/1888/index.html

The Paris-based energy agency cited one damning statistic: refinery runs in the first quarter of 2016 ran 60 percent higher than refined product demand growth. That has led to a buildup in inventories. The IEA said that “although stocks are close to topping out, they are at such elevated levels, especially for products for which demand growth is slackening, that they remain a major dampener on oil prices.”

refinery runs in the first quarter of 2016
ran 60 percent higher than refined product demand growth

...as storage levels reach their limits and refiners begin to cut back on production, the pressure on storage facilities should ease. The flip side of that development is fewer refiners purchasing crude oil, leading to a fall in oil demand.

refinery runs in the first quarter of 2016
ran 60 percent higher than refined product demand growth

On cue, the U.S. Energy Information Administration ...found that for the week ending on July 8, gasoline stocks actually rose by 1.2 million barrels, and remain substantially higher than even the upper limit of the long-run average for this time of year.

The result? Crude oil prices are down sharply during midday trading today, with WTI down nearly 4 percent and Brent off by more than that amount."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iea-gasoline-glut-could-cause-163745953.html
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What direction does oil look like it's going?

http://greensboroperformingarts.blogspot.com/2016/07/what-direction-does-oil-look-like-its.html