“‘[The 13 keys method] is a historically based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980,’ Professor Lichtman has said.” And: “Lichtman believes election analysts err by studying campaign as a series of battlefields — northern versus southern Florida, western versus eastern Pennsylvania, and so on. He prefers likening it to dominoes, toppling one way or the other. He says U.S. campaigns are contests of momentum. In the early 1980s, he and a colleague examined election results dating back to the Civil War and found a pattern. They drew up 13 true-false statements, and if the answer to six or more was ”False,” the incumbent party always lost the White House” [HuffPo]. And: “LICHTMAN: I don’t call [the 13 keys] data-driven. I have no problem with data. My prediction system is based on a huge amount of data, you know. But I do object to poll-and-pundit-driven analysis, which is not meaningful because it’s not based on any kind of systematic assessment of how elections work” [NPR].
"Trump’s support and turnout among rural voters was 10 percentage points higher than they had expected— Abner Doon (@ghartzman) November 10, 2016
Me too. https://t.co/NXYYLnYr0J— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) November 10, 2016
Still the best cartoon of the presidential election: pic.twitter.com/vnKZYTfHVu— Mark Wallace (@wallaceme) November 9, 2016
The Democrats forgot to have Biden say "Trump's going to put y'all back in chains!" https://t.co/GcUaqgpVOq— Meoso Funny (@MeosoFunny) November 9, 2016
Already clear there are dueling narratives of the election: who voted for Trump vs. who failed to come out for Clinton. In truth it was both— Richard Tofel (@dicktofel) November 10, 2016
The Source of our Rage: The Ruling Elite Is Protected from Consequences: https://t.co/pSfPRu5dSr pic.twitter.com/EbHsAJHamo— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) November 10, 2016
I am racking my brain but still have no idea how the experts lost credibility. https://t.co/AcYxbbazHX pic.twitter.com/ou2HdQatWl— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) November 10, 2016