Thursday, November 10, 2016

“Donald Trump’s win was predicted by Allan Lichtman — the US election expert who has called every result since 1984”

“‘[The 13 keys method] is a historically based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980,’ Professor Lichtman has said.” And: “Lichtman believes election analysts err by studying campaign as a series of battlefields — northern versus southern Florida, western versus eastern Pennsylvania, and so on. He prefers likening it to dominoes, toppling one way or the other. He says U.S. campaigns are contests of momentum. In the early 1980s, he and a colleague examined election results dating back to the Civil War and found a pattern. They drew up 13 true-false statements, and if the answer to six or more was ”False,” the incumbent party always lost the White House” [HuffPo]. And: “LICHTMAN: I don’t call [the 13 keys] data-driven. I have no problem with data. My prediction system is based on a huge amount of data, you know. But I do object to poll-and-pundit-driven analysis, which is not meaningful because it’s not based on any kind of systematic assessment of how elections work” [NPR].