Sunday, June 25, 2017

Same thing only different

In 2009, ...new light vehicle sales dropped to 10.4 million, GM and Chrysler went through bankruptcy reorganizations, retail dealers closed and many folks lost their jobs. The US  government felt the need to act in order to support the very vital automotive industry (3% of GDP & 10% of manufacturing). The Fed also stepped in to help stimulate the overall economy by reducing interest rates.

And printing money along with other Central banks, 
currently creating more than $200 billion per month,
keeping financial markets artificially afloat

...With no bottom in sight for falling new vehicle sales, our government attempted to stimulate demand by approving the 3 billion dollar Cash for Clunkers program beginning on July 1, 2009. Consumers received as much as $4,500 for trade vehicles that qualified for “clunker” status. The trade value of $4,500 represented a $75-$90 reduction in monthly payment on a 60 month loan assuming good credit.

...Consumers responded very well to the stimulus and sales spiked for a brief period till the program ended on August 24, 2009. This program also had an impact on the supply of used vehicles since all qualifying trades were destroyed as part of the transaction.

Cash for Clunkers eliminated a big chunk 
of the bottom of trade-in-able cars 
and created demand for newer, more complex and expensive autos

In December of 2008, the Fed also stepped in to stimulate the overall economy by lowering interest rates to a historic low between 0-.25%. In the following years, the 0% auto loan became the norm. Zero percent loans significantly boost consumer purchasing power by providing monthly payments of only $16.66 and $13.88 per thousand financed for 60 and 72 months respectively. These two forms of stimulus also had residual effects that further boosted sales volume and auto price inflation.

The perceived future value of pre-owned cars went up,
with the artificial Central Bank induced addition of low interest loans,
and purchasing support for the packaged bonds 
in which many of the worst loans ended up in, 
just like the mortgage bust

After the recession ended and demand returned, used vehicle values made strong and steady gains from 2009 till 2011 and peaked in 2014 due to a supply shortage, lower interest rates and increased demand from subprime borrowers after many folks damaged their personal credit by defaulting on a variety of loans.

Many owe more for longer terms than their cars are worth

This period of strong used vehicle value performance resulted in very short trade cycles, which significantly boosted new vehicle sales velocity.

Artificially

...Those who kept their vehicles slightly longer, found themselves with equity in their trades which further boosted their purchasing power.

Especially pick up trucks,
which became even more valuable when gasoline prices tanked.

Nothing gave consumers more purchasing power than leasing during this time period. Higher used vehicle values led to higher residual values.

The "residual value" is the 'predetermined' give back value of an auto lease,
after the lease term expires

The most impactful portion of a lease is the gap between the sale price of a vehicle and the residual value. Leases boosted consumer buying by producing monthly payments that required as little as $10.00 per thousand of a vehicle’s MSRP. As a result, leasing became more and more popular with 2016 setting a lease penetration record.

$20,000 car = $200 per month lease payment
on an automobile usually under 'bumper to bumper' warranty
for the entire length of a 36 month lease (3 year/36,000 mile warranty)

The stimulating effects listed above have created significant auto price inflation. The average new vehicle transaction price in 2008 was $28,350 and has increased to $35,309 in 2017 (24.5% inflation) while the median household income has increased by only 12.3% as of 2015.

Government supported industries like healthcare and education
have the most inflation in cost within our economy

The price of a new Chevrolet Tahoe LT 4WD was $39,560 in 2008. Today, the price of that vehicle has inflated by 40.1% to $55,455.  The highest trim level has inflated by an astounding 64.6%.

However, the 0% loans could only take us so far. The effect of ultra low lease payments due to abnormally high residual values helped to further inflate the value of new vehicle prices above and beyond what 0% loans could achieve.

The Infiniti G37, now known as the Q60, has inflated in price by 43.8% since 2008.

Once the price of a new vehicle gets so high that even 0% loan for 72 months no longer makes it affordable, the customer can simply be converted to a lease to keep the sales moving. This is very evident today as manufacturers have become more and more dependent on leasing.

Something has changed.

...The set of ingredients that perfectly fueled the recovery have all reversed and now power the perfect storm:

Interest rates are rising. It’s getting harder and more expensive for manufacturers to subvent (buy down as a form of incentive) interest rates.

Used vehicle prices are falling and will [likely] continue to fall. Falling used vehicle values prolong the negative equity period (elongated trade cycles) limiting the buying power of the consumer slowing the velocity of new vehicle sales.

A car purchased for $20,000 with a $19,000 
which is now worth $14,000 as a trade, 
has $5,000 of negative equity needing to be rolled into a new sale

The last is the most dangerous of all. Residuals values, which lag used vehicle values, are adjusting and will continue to adjust lower.

The assumed future value of leases 
has gone against the auto industry and its financing lenders,
just like when real estate prices fell and homeowners 
owed more than they could sell their houses for

What will happen when the new vehicle prices that have inflated beyond the affordability of 0% loans are no longer supported with the buying power that leasing provides?

Just like real estate prices did and have again

What will happen to the sales volume of the above manufacturers that rely on leases for more than 50% of their total sales?

Inventory at dealers will begin to backup.

Already has

New auto production will fall, leaving unemployed middle class workers

We will start witnessing [even bigger] discounts from manufacturers that keep rising in an effort to control a rising day supply problem because new vehicles will no longer be affordable.

Incentives will stop working because as the price of the new vehicle is reduced, it will simultaneously put downward pressure on the trade value of the 1-3 year-old version of the vehicle.

At the end leases, lessees are seeing the resalable cars
worth relatively less than anticipated by the lessors,
which is driving used car values down, 
which increases the negative equity in financed vehicles, 
which makes them harder to trade in, 
which makes new car sales fall

Production might slow or stop for a period of time, but it won’t change the fact that new vehicle prices will have inflated beyond the buying power of the consumer.

Already is

Short term interest rates are currently rising. 

...Profits for manufacturers and retail dealers will fall significantly in the coming years.

...Falling new vehicle sales will mean more dealers competing for fewer customers. This sales environment will lead to massive margin compression and newer entries may not survive. Both manufacturers and retail dealers will be forced to reconsider the cost structure of their business to better compete with companies like Tesla which have a much lower cost of distribution.

Longer owned, relatively more complex late model cars
will be owned for even longer, generating more revenue for the 'fix it' side of the business

Something that’s very different today than it was during our last recession is the ability for companies to replace or reduce the size of their workforce with technological alternatives.

...When the smoke clears, manufacturers and dealers will adopt a much more cost-effective way of retailing new vehicles to the public. This will have a negative impact on both the quantity of jobs and wage growth in the automotive sector.

http://blindersoffllc.blogspot.bg/2017/06/the-perfect-storm-2-autonomics-by.html?m=1

Universal Basic Income For Greensboro, Part 2

Yesterday I posted Universal Basic Income For Greensboro in which I told you a little bit about the history of Universal Basic Income. But what if I told you that Universal Basic Income was one of the basic tenants of the founding fathers of the United States of America?

In his pamphlet, Agrarian Justice, Thomas Paine, one of the signers of The Constitution of the United States  wrote:

"To understand what the state of society ought to be, it is necessary tohave some idea of the natural and primitive state of man; such as it is at this day among the Indians of North America. There is not, inthat state, any of those spectacles of human misery which poverty and wantpresent to our eyes in all the towns and streets in Europe.

Poverty, therefore, is a thing created by that which is called civilizedlife. It exists not in the natural state. On the other hand, the naturalstate is without those advantages which flow from agriculture, arts, scienceand manufactures.

The life of an Indian is a continual holiday, compared with the poor ofEurope; and, on the other hand it appears to be abject when compared tothe rich.

Civilization, therefore, or that which is so-called, has operated two ways:to make one part of society more affluent, and the other more wretched,than would have been the lot of either in a natural state.
It is always possible to go from the natural to the civilized state, butit is never possible to go from the civilized to the natural state.

Thereason is that man in a natural state, subsisting by hunting, requires tentimes the quantity of land to range over to procure himself sustenance,than would support him in a civilized state, where the earth is cultivated."

Poverty is a product of civilization and it is never possible to go from the civilized to the natural state.

In other words, God did not create poverty, humanity created poverty as part of our efforts to create civilization. Unlike today, leaders in Thomas Paine's day were still able to actually witness the native peoples who in his words, "The life of an Indian is a continual holiday, compared with the poor ofEurope..."

So if humanity created poverty then is it not humanity's job to do something to fix poverty? Thomas Paine thought so:

"When, therefore, a country becomes populous by the additional aids of cultivation,art and science, there is a necessity of preserving things in that state;because without it there cannot be sustenance for more, perhaps, than atenth part of its inhabitants. The thing, therefore, now to be done is toremedy the evils and preserve the benefits that have arisen to society bypassing from the natural to that which is called the civilized state.

In taking the matter upon this ground, the first principle of civilizationought to have been, and ought still to be, that the condition of every personborn into the world, after a state of civilization commences, ought notto be worse than if he had been born before that period."

Thomas Paine had a vision of America being better off than Europe. He had been to Europe, seen the suffering masses there, knew what this nation would soon become if no means of sharing the wealth were made available to the poor.

Paine went on to write:

"But the fact is that the condition of millions, in every country in Europe,is far worse than if they had been born before civilization begin, had beenborn among the Indians of North America at the present. I will show howthis fact has happened.

It is a position not to be controverted that the earth, in its natural,cultivated state was, and ever would have continued to be, the commonproperty of the human race. In that state every manwould have been born to property. He would have been a joint life proprietorwith rest in the property of the soil, and in all its natural productions,vegetable and animal."

Paine understood that to live off the land as a hunter-gather required 10 times as much land per person as farming required so therefore those who were landless were condemned to poverty in a civilized world. Thus he wrote:

"But the earth in its natural state, as before said, is capable of supportingbut a small number of inhabitants compared with what it is capable of doingin a cultivated state. And as it is impossible to separatethe improvement made by cultivation from the earth itself, upon which thatimprovement is made, the idea of landed property arosefrom that parable connection; but it is nevertheless true, that it is thevalue of the improvement, only, and not the earth itself, that is individualproperty."

And most importantly:

"Every proprietor, therefore, of cultivated lands, owes to the community ground-rent (for I know of no better term to express theidea) for the land which he holds; and it is from this ground-rent thatthe fund prod in this plan is to issue."

Of course, in Paine's days land owning farmers/plantation owners were the richest of the rich so it only made sense to tax then the most. And from that money Thomas Paine advocated:

"In advocating the case of the persons thus dispossessed, it is a right,and not a charity, that I am pleading for. But it is that kind of rightwhich, being neglected at first, could not be brought forward afterwardstill heaven had opened the way by a revolution in the system of government.Let us then do honor to revolutions by justice, and give currency to theirprinciples by blessings.

Having thus in a few words, opened the merits of the case, I shall now proceedto the plan I have to propose, which is,

To create a national fund, out of which there shall be paid to every person,when arrived at the age of twenty-one years, the sum of fifteen pounds sterling,as a compensation in part, for the loss of his or her natural inheritance,by the introduction of the system of landed property:

And also, the sum of ten pounds per annum, during life, to every personnow living, of the age of fifty years, and to all others as they shall arriveat that age."

"it is a right,and not a charity" - Thomas Paine on Universal Basic Income

Stay tuned for Universal Basic Income For Greensboro, Part 3, it just makes sound fiscal conservative sense.

Saturday, June 24, 2017

South Elm Redevelopment Project Study

Some months ago I was contacted by Tim Leisman a UNCG Masters student who was doing a case study on Greensboro's South Elm Street Redevelopment Project. He was frustrated because the City of Greensboro wouldn't speak with him about the project, went online and found my various blog posts about the project. I agreed to give Mr Leisman the info I had provided he send me a copy of his results.

I also promised to share his results no matter what he wrote.

A little while ago I received the following e-mail from Tim:

"Billy,

I’ve finally gotten around to finishing this paper. Please see attached. It may not answer all of your questions but I hope it helps provide a thorough and accurate description of the South Elm Redevelopment Project, its challenges, and the social/academic context. Please do let me know if you spot anything that’s inaccurate (I’ve asked a staff member from the city to do the same).

After speaking with city staff and reviewing the documents that you provided me, which were the same as what they provided me, I’m convinced that a thorough audit would not reveal any evidence of corruption or inappropriate spending. I think, as noted in the paper, that most of the blame for slow progress on implementation lies somewhere between the contracting process and specific challenges it posed for the city, SEDG’s attitude, and the economy tanking.

One thought I had while reflecting on our conversation and your inquiries into the city’s spending: I saw in Tom Carruthers’ response to you in 2016 that he said the city would be able to respond to public records requests for specific line item expenditures that you had questions about from the Transaction Report spreadsheet. Did you ever follow up with that? I would be interested in what you would find from those public records requests that would verify answers to questions about the expenditures that you raised in your blog posts. At least, I think that’s the case from how I understand Tom Carruthers’ response.

Please let me know your thoughts about the paper. Thanks!"

I posted the study to Facebook for those who wish to read it. Unfortunately my Google Docs no longer allows me to share.

My reply to Tim:

"Thank you Tim,

Unfortunately I am suffering from Pulmonary Fibrosis, a terminal lung disease, and simply no longer have to energy nor the patience to file, wait for, and drive downtown to pick up what would amount to hundreds of public information requests. Therefore I am no longer perusing the SERP.

But I did post the results of your study online as promised.

-Billy"


I don't know what I think of Tim's study. He had all the information I had and came to a completely different conclusion. Was I wrong? Maybe. But without seeing what the money was actually spent for I don't know how we can know for certain.


Correction: This happens every time I rely on memory. My bad. Tim sends me the following correction:

"Thanks as well for posting my paper to your blog! Although if you wouldn't mind, could you please make a slight correction? It wasn't that the City of Greensboro wouldn't speak with me; I had spoken with several current and former city employees by the time I reached out to you. I couldn't get a response from anyone on the private developer side of the project and was frustrated trying to get information about what was going on with the project from their side."

There you have it, it was developers and not the City who wouldn't speak with Tim. 

Universal Basic Income For Greensboro

One of the biggest mistakes local governments can make is in looking to State and Federal governments to solve local problems. I'm always amazed at how many states rights advocates never advocate for the rights of local governments to solve the issues facing them.

And of course, even those who disagree with my rhetoric will agree that failing to invest in infrastructure can be devastating. But are you aware of the type of infrastructure that is most often overlooked? No, it's not roads, highways or bridges. The type of infrastructure most often overlooked is the most valuable infrastructure any city can have-- it's citizens.

After all, without citizens you have no city, no one to pay taxes, no one to do the work, nothing but an abandoned city soon to crumble to the ground. We, the people, are the most basic and most important infrastructure any city could ever invest in.

Of course there is only so much any city can afford to do but Greensboro gives away millions upon millions of taxpayer dollars to rich people every month. And does any of that money trickle down to Greensboro's poor?

You know it doesn't. Never has, never well.

In an article entitled Finnish citizens given universal basic income report lower stress levels and greater incentive to work, the Independent reports:


"Finland has been giving 2,000 of its citizens an unconditional income for the last five months and some are already seeing the benefits, reporting decreased stress, greater incentives to find work and more time to pursue business ideas.

The scheme is the first of its kind in Europe and sees participants receive €560 (£473) every month for two years. 


Recipients do not have to demonstrate that they are seeking employment and they are not required to regularly report to authorities to prove they still need the payment, as is the case with standard unemployment benefits. They can spend the money however they like."


So who is against Universal Basic Income in Finland? Not the right wingers. It's Finland's labor Unions who are complaining the loudest.

And in Ontario, Canada they are planning to again test Universal Basic Income:

"In 1974, about 1,000 residents in Dauphin, a small farming town of 10,000 people in Manitoba, began receiving monthly payments with no strings attached. The pilot, a joint effort by the federal and provincial government, set the stipend at around 60% of Statistics Canada’s poverty threshold, translating to roughly C$16,000 a year in today’s dollars for a single person. For every dollar earned from other income sources, 50 cents were scaled back from the monthly payment.
The payments flowed for four years, turning Dauphin into a potent test site for the policy. Research found little change in the residents’ work habits, save for new mothers who took longer maternity leaves and teenage boys who were more likely to stay in high school.
Instead the monthly income became a source of stability, buffering residents from financial ruin in the case of sudden illness, disability or unpredictable economic events. Hospitalisations dropped, as did injuries and mental health issues.
But the budget of $17m – the equivalent of about $85m today – ran short , hindering data analysis. A growing federal push for austerity along with a change in Manitoba’s government in 1977 sounded the final death knell for the project."


Wait a minute, did I read that right? "...the monthly income became a source of stability, buffering residents from financial ruin in the case of sudden illness, disability or unpredictable economic events. Hospitalisations dropped, as did injuries and mental health issues."

Examples of basic income in the USA include the Alaska Permanent Fund which pays oil dividends to every resident of Alaska who has lived there for at least 1 year. It's not much but it's a start.

Republican President Richard Nixon twice attempted to bring Universal Basic Income to the United States and was twice voted down by the Democrats.

According to Wikipedia:

"Beginning in the end of 1960s, there were four basic income experiments conducted in the United States, all in the form of a negative income tax. As Alicia H. Munnell, who was examining the experiments in Indiana, Seattle and Denver explains, [1] a moderate reduction in work effort (17% among women, 7% among men) has been found by the American economist Gary Burtless. Munnell also mentions that the money people had received was not squandered on frivolous products such as drugs and luxury goods. In addition, there has been an increase in school attendance. Nevetheless, no noticeable improvements to health and the overall well-being were discovered and the effect on home-ownership rates was found to be negligible as well."What the Wikipedia quote doesn't mention is the fact that the majority of the 17% reduction in work time for women was for longer maternity leaves than before, and that the 7% reduction in work effort among men was attributed almost entirely to late teens and twentysomethings.

Also there was no mention of the effect on the local economy but anyone with half a brain realizes that putting more money into the hands of consumers always spurs growth in the local economy.

And this right here in North Carolina:

"A longitudinal study of 1,420 low income children in rural North Carolina designed to observe their mental condition had the unintended result of also measuring the effect of an unconditional cash transfer on a subset of this group. [4] The Great Smoky Mountains Study of Youth has found that a quarter of the families belonging to the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians have experienced a surge in annual income due to a newly built casino as during this study, a portion of profits of this casino were unconditionally distributed to all tribal members on a semi-annual basis.[5] Key findings of this study include lower instances of behavioural and emotional disorders among the children and improved relationship between children and their parents, as well as reduction in parental alcohol consumption."

It terrifies all the status quo institutions on the left and the right. How will the elites profit if the poor get their act together, reduce alcoholism, drug abuse, become better educated, get better jobs, have better relationships with their families..... the list goes on.

After all, if people are able to take care of themselves then what do we need the status quo intuitions for?

So why aren't Greensboro's leaders working to start Universal Basic Income programs?

Perhaps you should read Nixon's Basic Income Plan in its entirety and decide for yourself.


More recommended reading: A Brief History of Basic Income Ideas dating back to the 1500s.

Monday, June 19, 2017

Kendrick Turner For Mayor Greensboro NC?

Well this is interesting and I thought since I stumbled on this tidbit that others might find it interesting. Apparently someone registered the website kendrickturner4mayor.org. It actually came up via a listing on the Yelp website.

The site isn't active and I don't know if it has ever been active but because I don't know who Kendrick Turner might be I started searching some more and found a Kendrick Turner for Mayor Facebook page from 2017.

Then I found that a man by the name of Kendrick Turner who was running for Norfolk, Va City Council was robbed at gunpoint in January of 2016.

Coincidence? Maybe.

Interestingly I found several Facebook profiles for Kendrick Turner like this Kendrick Turner living in Los Angeles, and from NY, NY. This Kendrick Turner who claims to be from Wilson, NC and works for Facebook. Or how about a Kendrick Turner who lives in Arlington, Mass?

Or this Kendrick Turner with only pictures of who appears to be his new wife. Funny, his wife Pearlie Mae Daniels Turner, born 1955, was hardly in her coffin before he married yet another older woman.

Amazingly, all these Kendrick Turners look just alike.

The Kendrick Turner living in Los Angeles put up a no parking sign at his church on June 16, 2017 but if you look close at the sign you'll see the towing company is located in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Where does Kendrick Turner live and what is he up to?


According to Norfolk TV 10 WAVY.com  Kendrick Turner, who claims to be a bishop, has a very long history of ripping people off.

"WAVY.com is familiar with Turner, and he’s been accused of not paying people for services before. 10 On Your Side did a report last May about security guards he owed money to. When we checked court records, we found dozens of people who have taken Turner to court for the same thing."


And from a 2009 article titled Beware the bishop in the Daily Press:

"Heaven help the community from saviors like this."

They also said a lot worse but you'll have to click on the link above to read it.

According to vpap.org, a Virginia campaign tracking website, Turner got 3 campaign contributions totaling $15,000, and another $15,000 in in-kind contributions but it really looks as if he simply pocketed any money he got. How much you want to bet his 3 campaign contributions came from lonely old widows? Or his church collection plates?

According to the Virginian-Pilot, he was convicted of campaign fraud in 2004.

"To win the seat in the May election, Kendrick J. Turner would have to oust Vice Mayor Angelia Williams Graves, who said Monday that she is running for re-election. Graves won election to the council in November 2010 and was appointed vice mayor in January 2014.


Turner, 43, said he is a Norfolk native who moved back to the city about a month ago, after spending most of the past two decades in Newport News, Portsmouth, Hampton and in North Carolina and Maryland.

He said he is the bishop of The Holy Ghost Fire Outreach Ministry, a Pentecostal church in Newport News.


Turner’s election fraud occurred in Hampton after he was accused of changing the dates on petitions in order to get on the ballot for the mayor’s race that year, according to published news reports."

And now he's thinking about coming to Greensboro. Or maybe he's already here.

Share it quick, folks, protect those lonely widows from con men. As soon as Mr Turner sees it he'll start removing those Facebook pages and anything else he can erase from the Internet. They always do.

Man Up Greensboro!

Want to take cheap shots at me? You'll not do it via the comments on this blog anymore as I've turned them off. I usually didn't check them but once or twice a week anyway so a lot of your cheap shots weren't even being read.

That said, I'm easy to get in touch with and will be happy to publish your comments. Just e-mail them to RecycleBill@gmail.com if you've got the balls to do so. That way you can see them on the front page where even more people will notice them. I'll even post your picture if you want me to. Here's my picture if you haven't seen me before.


That's right, I'm looking old and gray, my heart skips from time to time and my breathing is shallow from an incurable and terminal lung disease called Pulmonary Fibrosis. My chest hurts. My entire body hurts. Always. If you put me in a wet paper bag I'd starve to death before I got out. Five years ago I could easily lift and carry 200 pounds. Today I can't handle 50 pounds. I'm not a threat to anyone, why are you so scared of me that you want to hide behind your computer and insult me? I do what I do solely because I want to help the community. Even if there were money in it for me I'll never live long enough to enjoy it.

And no, I don't want sympathy, I just want people to know there is no hidden agenda for what I do. I'm not being paid, I'm not making advertising dollars... I know the pain of losing my only child. I'm just dreaming of a better Greensboro where people don't have to ask to do the right thing. And I'm happy to say, thanks to a few friends it's actually happening. But be warned, that is not a political forum.
Or you can find me on Facebook. Of course, everything on my Facebook page is just as public as this blog is.

Of course I do expect you to keep your comments on topic. When I post to my page about the City of Greensboro I expect the conversation to remain about the City of Greensboro and not shoot off into what the Republicrats and Dimlicans are doing in Washington. Sadly, too many blog commenters and Facebook users don't seem to understand the difference between a mayor and a president. Everything that is wrong with Greensboro is not the fault of the Liberacons and the Coniberils.

Nor is there a problem that Abner Doon and occasionally others post to this blog using factious names. What they are posting is fact and I know who they are. Which is more than can be said for those who wish to cowardly use the comments here to abuse myself and others.

Even those persons I attack with my words deserve to know who is attacking them. And trust me, they all know who Abner Doon really is. Just because you don't know Abner Doon's real identity doesn't mean his targets don't know. Hell, he e-mails them links to his blog posts using his real name. I know that because he BCCs me on the e-mails. They actually talk to him whereas most of them won't talk to me. Some of them actually like Abner. He doesn't want to use a factious name, he has a job and a nervous boss who reads this blog, and makes him do it.

We also have two moderated Facebook groups you can join. The first is EzGreensboro Posts Only where we only discuss the posts here at EzGreensboro.com

And the second is Real Progress For Greensboro where we discuss what is relevant to Greensboro no matter where it comes from.

I have my bad days and I'm not proud of everything I've ever said or done. But nothing I've ever done required that I hide while doing it. If you want to accuse me of something then come out and do it. Otherwise it is just cowardly harassment.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

The Dead End

The following is a guest post by Fred Gregory, previously posted at EzGreensboro Posts Only-- a publicly viewable Facebook forum. It was previously posted as a guest post at The Burning Platform. I am presenting it here in our Letters To The Editor section without comment except to say that while I cannot agree entirely, there is much truth and much to be learned in these words. As for Mr Gregory's lack of politically correct speech-- get over it and take the good with the bad.

The Dead End
Posted on June 15, 2017

Most of the issue that plague our modern societies stem from the unwillingness of our policy makers to consider the obvious solutions. In the 80’s, we had a bum crisis due to the states being forced to fling open the doors to their nervous hospitals. The former patients had no one willing to care for them and no ability to care for themselves, so they ended up on the streets as bums. The obvious answer was to put them back into the asylums, but that was ruled off limits and we still have a bum problem to this day.

The solution to the bum problem was to ignore it and build up a big new bureaucracy for dealing with the bums, while not actually getting them off the streets. That meant a proliferation of not-for-profit organizations that dealt with the bums, using grants from the city, state and federal government. The result is we now have a special interest that works to thwart any effort to get the bums off the streets. Bum maintenance has become an industry with lobbyists and political power. And we still have bums.

The thing is, the Cloud People do not have a bum problem. They “solved” the “homeless” problem by agreeing to use their tax dollars to build flop houses in your neighborhood and they also make sure the bum services industry is located in your neighborhood. You will never see a homeless shelter next to a Starbucks. The cops in Cloud Country are adept at putting the stray bum on a bus and sending him to Dirt Country, where the shelters are located. After all, they are public servants and that is the humane thing to do.

For a minor annoyance like the bum problem, this is not an untenable situation. Even in the ghetto, the crazy guy screaming at cars as they pass by is just local color. For bigger issues, like the black underclass, this approach is unworkable. For fifty years white liberals have been playing a weird game of Old Maid, in which they find new ways to dump blacks from their neighborhoods into the normie middle-class. The normies respond by moving away, but Lefty keeps finding ways to inflict the problem on them.

The primary source of racial conflict in modern America is the Cloud People habit of blaming typical white people for the bad behavior of blacks. Whites don’t care if Ray-Ray guns down Trayvon over a sneaker beef, but they do care when they are told they are responsible for it. Instead of addressing the issue of ghetto violence, we have a whole industry built around race hustling. The dysfunctional black under-class is the source of income for thousands of people with an interest in never solving it.
The Exploding Mohamed is looking like a problem for which the Cloud People have no way to ignore, but they are working hard to find a way to turn this problem into a weapon against the Dirt People. Take a look at this Spectator piece after the most recent incident. It reads like a meditation on how to avoid facing reality. The proposed suggestions, they don’t qualify as solutions, are laughably pointless. You could be forgiven for thinking the writer started by eliminating what will work and then came up with his list of solutions.

The most obvious solution to the exploding and stabbing Mohameds is to stop importing Mohameds. If BMW’s exploded at this rate, Britain would ban the importation of BMW’s and demand the manufacturer recall those in the country. Volkswagen is facing billions in fines for violating trivial emissions regulations. Yet, no one dares say, “there’s a problem with these Mohameds. Let’s put the brakes on importing more of them until will can figure out what’s going on with them.” Nope. It is a mad dash to import more of them.

The trouble is they can’t ignore it, like the bum problem, or even blame the honkies, like they do with black crime. This one is all on the Cloud People, but they can’t bring themselves to face the cause of the problem. Instead, they build out the police state, install more cameras and turn the country into a game preserve. Cynics say this is deliberate, but that assumes facts not in evidence. These people are not that clever. It’s that their multicultural religion forbids them from considering the right answer to the problem.

It is the aspect of anarcho-tyranny that most people don’t get right away. It’s not that the authorities are lazy or disinterested. It’s that they are afraid of their own bizarre religion of multiculturalism. When you rule out the reality of human nature from the tool set, you’re left with solutions that are contrary to human nature. The thing that allows them to rule like tyrants over their own kind, prevents them from raising a finger against strangers and aliens. It is as if a form of Toxoplasma gondii has infected the brains of the ruling elites.

This is not a terrible way to think of it. The typical person in the managerial elite has never had to face the hard decisions most of us take for granted. Theirs has been a life without accountability in a world stripped of the harsher aspects of the human condition. If you have spent your life in the dream world of the academy and the government campus, you can be forgiven for not wanting to question the underlying orthodoxy. As Tucker Carlson pointed out in this speech, it is a great life and no one would choose to leave it.

The trouble is, once you eliminate the axiomatic, you inevitably end in a logical dead end, with no real options other than retracing your steps. Since questioning the one true faith is off limits, the Cloud People spend their days dreaming up fantasy solutions to real problems that just keep getting worse. For something like bum control, nature tends to step in and solve the problem. For a Muslim invasion, the problem will not resolve itself, at least not in a tolerable way, until the fever breaks or the system collapses.

This will not end well.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Hard News Coverage In Greensboro

It's an important survey, just do it, Greensboro: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe_LZa3rRSXYVOS8_NpkC9KMUcgylLpZJ6zTaNicVbjKBk6Aw/viewform?c=0&w=1

I Never Got A Penny From Marty Kotis

From time to time anonymous cowards identifying themselves only as Fred Fred and by other names leave comments on various posts on this blog accusing me, Billy Jones, of having accepted money from Marty Kotis.

Before my falling out with Mr Kotis I did meet with him several times to discuss business.

On one such occasion I agreed to build a StreetPlane for Mr Kotis to use in the promotion of his restaurant, Burger Warfare.

A StreetPlane is a moped/motorized bicycle that looks like an airplane. Previously I had built one that looked like a World War I era biplane.

Mr Kotis wanted a StreetPlane that resembled a Russian MIG Fighter jet.

Mr Kotis offered me an advance to help pay for the cost of materials.

I refused the advance preferring instead to risk only my own money as I saw the project as quite challenging and questioned my ability to build a product I thought would be suitable for Mr Kotis.

Months passed and several attempts at building a MIG inspired StreetPlane were tried but I was never happy with my own work. If I wasn't happy with my work then I wasn't about to show it to anyone else-- especially a paying customer.

The biggest problem was in scaling down the MIG to only a few feet wide. By the time you do so the cockpit is so small only a hamster or mouse could fit inside. And if you make the cockpit big enough for a human then the wings must be so short it doesn't look anything at all like an airplane. Remember: this thing has to fit in one lane on the average city street.

There were other problems, personal problems mostly, things that were going on in my life at the time that made things harder, but the fact remains I never took any money from Marty Kotis, Kotis Properties, Kotis Restaurants or anyone representing Kotis.

I accept the fact that I am responsible for not being able to build what I thought I could build. I failed. But I never took a penny from Marty Kotis or any of his companies.

And if anyone tells you I did, ask them, no demand they produce the cancelled checks or copies of Kotis Company accounting vouchers that show that I received any funds from Marty Kotis.

Better yet, ask Marty Kotis himself, get it in print, or get a recording and make it public. Because if Marty Kotis or anyone working for Marty Kotis is proven to be spreading the rumor that I ever got a penny from Marty Kotis or Kotis Properties, I'll be very happy to drag him into court and force him to produce the documents to prove it.

And Fred Fred, I'll not be broke then.

The Cost Of Owning A Home In Greensboro, North Carolina

Recently Forbes listed the 21 most expensive places to own a home according to income. Luckily Greensboro failed to make that list. But how does Greensboro compare to the rest of North Carolina?

To determine that I went to RealtyTrac and ATTOM Data Solutions, the source of the data used in the Forbes article. Here's what I learned.

Nationwide, home affordability is dropping. It's getting harder and harder to buy a home. Greensboro is no exception to that trend. But interestingly enough, while RealtyTrac and ATTOM Data Solutions attribute the nationwide drop in affordability to an increase in housing prices, they also report a drop in Greensboro housing prices.

In Greensboro, High Point, and Guilford County it requires 21.8% of average annual wages to pay down a home. The median price of a home in Greensboro is $125,000, wage growth is 3%, and house prices have fallen 0.08%.

Now when you add in Randolph County to Greensboro and High Point things are very different with 28.8% of annual wages required to buy a home, average home prices also at $125,000, and weekly wage growth up at 5.2%. Take into account the 15.2% rise in home prices over the same period and it is easy to see that anyone who can afford to leave Greensboro is buying in Randolph County.

In Forsyth County and Winston-Salem housing prices are growing at 1.6% while wages are growing at 2.9%. With housing prices currently averaging $128,000 and 20.9% of wages necessary to buy a home the market there is far more healthy than Greensboro or Randolph County.

Statewide, and without accounting for anything else like taxes, transportation, groceries, lower wages, etc, Greensboro, High Point and Guilford County appear to be more affordable than most other cities but while most of the state saw increasing home values, Greensboro saw losses.