Sunday, September 27, 2015

Black Swan; "Chinese Coal Company Fires 100,000"

"...Longmay Group, the biggest met coal miner in northeast China which has been struggling to reduce massive losses in recent months as a result of the commodity collapse, just confirmed China's "hard-landing" has arrived when it announced on its website it would cut 100,000 jobs or 40% of its entire 240,000-strong labor force.

The decline of great powers
is caused by simple economic over extension.

Paul Michael Kennedy
British historian, and author of “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”

...The heavily-indebted company also plans to sell its non-coal related businesses to help pay off its debts

...The announcement came in the midst of Chinese president Xi Jinping's ongoing tour to the United States, where he assured politicians and businessmen that China's economy will achieve the targeted 7% growth in gross domestic product.

Statements by high officials are practically always misleading,
when they are designed to bolster a falling market.

Gerald M Loeb

It gets worse, especially in a worst case scenario: Longmay also has 180,000 pensioners to take care of, with life-long payments covering pensions and medical insurance, which are also considered a huge financial burden.

We should consider ourselves unauthorized
to saddle posterity with our debts and morally bound to pay them ourselves

Each generation has the right by will of its majority to bind themselves
but none to bind the succeeding generation

Thomas Jefferson China's commodity bubble bursts, and the fixed-investment surge mean reverts, the coal industry is set to become a source of millions of job losses.

Incidentally, far more than the Chinese stock bubble burst, or even the credit and housing bubble, the implications from mass defaults of coal companies are precisely what is keeping Beijing up at night.

When the rich plunder the poor of his rights,
it becomes an example for the poor to plunder the rich of his property,
for the rights of the one are as much property to him
as wealth is property to the other,
and the little all is as dear as the much.

It is only by setting out on just principles
that men are trained to be just to each other; and it will always be found,
that when the rich protect the rights of the poor,
the poor will protect the property of the rich.

But the guarantee, to be effectual, must be parliamentarily reciprocal.

Thomas Paine

...As factories run out of money and construction projects turn idle across China, there has been a rise in the last thing Beijing wants to see: unrest."

Human beings are… of two persuasions,
the first would spend tomorrow what they earn today,
the second would spend today what they hope to earn tomorrow.

From this…arise all conflicts that lead to economic crises,
to panics, depressions, violent and revolutionary transfers of wealth
and perhaps most wars.

Freeman Tilden

...if there is one thing China's politburo simply can not afford right now, is to layer public unrest and civil violence on top of an economy which is already in "hard-landing" move. Forget black - this would be the bloody swan that nobody could "possibly have seen coming."

People who have what they want 
are fond of telling people who haven't what they want,
that they really don't want it.

Ogden Nash

If the natural cycle of laissez faire capitalism 
revolves between risk and aversion, 
what should happen if government intervention perverts the process?

Think of the Earth as a living organism…
being attacked by billions of bacteria,
whose numbers double every forty years.

Gore Vidal

On the famine inflicted by the Soviet Union on Ukraine, 1932-1933

Ponzi finance units must increase outstanding debt
in order to meet financial obligations.

A transition occurs over the course of an expansion
as increasingly risky positions are validated by the booming economy
that renders the built in margins of error superfluous,
encouraging adoption of riskier positions.

Eventually, either financing costs rise,
or income comes in below expectations,
leading to defaults on payment commitments.

Hyman Minsky
Believed excessive debt causes financial crises

"Economic Underpinnings of the U.S. Revolutionary War"

Any system produces winners and losers

If the gap between them gets too great
the losers will organize themselves politically
and seek to recast the existing system within nations and between them

Henry Kissinger

Resource consumption, food production, population, and fiat money creation,
all rose faster in the last 50 years than the preceding 5,000,
as we consumed more than replenished.

Government is the great fiction
through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else

Frederic Bastiat

Mold continues to multiply after eating half a piece of cheese
and eventually eats the cheese and itself until there isn't any mold or cheese left.

If human beings are the mold and Earth is the cheese,
we appear to have past the point of possible sustainability
and now there are too many who want relatively high advertised standard of livings,
meaning globally, it's down to who get’s what’s left, who gets cut off when
and how and where who is most likely to survive.

As mold can't collectively prevent the procreation of a larger generation
that can’t be fed by the remaining cheese,
the human population of Earth appears to have done the same.

The world's big central banks are out of ammo,
and confidence in centrally orchestrated economic policy is falling.

If need is sustenance and a temperate climate,
don't do what you don’t want done to you unless you need to.

[Social stability] will continue to exist
 up until the time that [the majority] discover
 that they can [garner] generous gifts from the public treasury

From that moment on
the majority always [supports those]
who promise the most benefits…
with the result that [most complex modern societies]
will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy…

…nations [almost] always progressed through the following sequence

From bondage to spiritual faith
from spiritual faith to great courage
from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance
from abundance to complacency
from complacency to apathy
 from apathy to dependence
from dependence back into bondage


At what point do those who promote and/or vote for ever increasing sums of government backed debt to finance what may not be necessities, bequeath an unsustainable burden on the future incomes of the community’s young?

The first truth is that the liberty of a democracy is not safe
if the people tolerate the growth of private power
to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself

That, in essence, is fascism
ownership of government by an individual
by a group or by any other controlling power

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Speaking the Truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act

George Orwell

What could happen if high school graduates
can’t afford or finance higher education
while indebted graduates can’t find jobs paying enough to cover bills?

The enjoyment of power is fatal to the subtleties of life
Ruling classes degenerate
by reason of their lazy indulgence in obvious gratifications

Alfred North Whitehead

The people that need stirred up are the young,
educated un and/or underemployed and underpaid,
to make them begin to think of what they should,
instead of what they are, which seems not to be much.

And they got screwed by their parents and don’t realize it yet.

Roman Empire stuff, but it’s happening

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization'

Ralph Waldo Emerson

What could happen if a generation of underemployed, underpaid
educated and indebted young adults
become disillusioned by their elders’ financial mismanagement
and seek to identify and punish those responsible?

Have the powerless created symbols for the powerful to destroy
to create dissent by turning apathy into perceived oppression?
"1969 Greensboro uprising"

Why did the Athenians create more money by decreasing gold and silver coin content during the Peloponnesian war?

Saturday, August 22, 2015;
Some recent Hartzman economic/financial market/real estate related posts

Tuesday, August 25, 2015
"...after three weeks of net buying, institutional clients’ net sales last week were the largest in our data history."

Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Durable Goods New Orders; Year over Year = Recession = Media Censorship and Greensboro's News and Record

Wednesday, August 26, 2015
"Leverage of this magnitude is 'gasoline waiting on a match.' "

Monday, August 31, 2015
Notice anything? Think you'll read about this in Warren Buffett's News and Record tomorrow?

Thursday, September 3, 2015
James Howard Kunstler; "Say Goodbye to Normal"

Friday, September 4, 2015
" finally saw over 500,000 readers" - Billy Jones; Thursday, January 22, 2015

September 4, 2015; the count on the left said 629,259

On 9/27/2015; 643,167 at 10:51am = 605 page hits per day average,
up from 574.48 page views per day since January 22, 2015 to September 4, 2015

Oompa Loompa's on Television versus Reading and the Dumbification of Society

Friday, September 11, 2015
"Consumer Confidence Tumbles To 12-Month Lows With Biggest Miss On Record"

Sunday, September 13, 2015
China's severe slowdown, which will go unreported in the Piedmont Triad

Monday, September 14, 2015
A couple financial experts on the City of Greensboro's ICMA-RC 457 plan

Monday, September 14, 2015
Financial Market Average Valuation Indicators

Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Not reported locally by our compromised press...

Thursday, September 24, 2015
Lumber, Greensboro's News and Record's Editorial Board and a little economic reality behind the curtain