Thursday, September 24, 2015

Lumber, Greensboro's News and Record's Editorial Board and a little economic reality behind the curtain

"Delaying a bond referendum until March will add to the cost of borrowing. 

Interest rates will go up, so the state will get less than it could for its money.

...Proposing it sooner could have saved borrowing costs."

Doug Clark and Allen Johnson

How do you know interest rates are going up?

What is the basis of the conclusion?

Is it because of Puerto Rico's default and other municipal stress caused by over-borrowing, like in Illinois?

If lumber prices are falling like a rock,
which means the economy is slowing dramatically 
why would the Fed increase interest rates?

If you are certain of the interest rate rise, why not compel the City of Greensboro to lock in more than $100,000,000 in short term variable debt?

Your certainty on this point is the opposite of what the City's finance department has done with our local debt burden.

How much would our payments have risen if the Fed raised rates 0.25% last week?

Rick Lusk knows. 

Why not ask, or is the line of questioning considered out of bounds before a local election.

Domestic Deflation Before Inflation = lower, not higher interest rates in the short term

"The economic situation is deteriorating for the average American, the mood of the country is darkening, and the world is awash in debt and turmoil. 

Every country is attempting to print their way to renewed prosperity. 

The oligarchs have chosen a path of currency debasement, propping up insolvent banks, propaganda and impoverishing the masses as their preferred course.

Quantitative Easing has led to deflation, 
meaning the course of action backed by the mainstream media
and politicians who want to retain power
appears to have failed, 
which may very well cause lower to negative interest rates
instead of what Doug Clark and Allen Johnson envision. 

...Their lies and deception have held sway, but they have only delayed the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion...”
"An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way...

At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.”

Our local opinion leaders and journalist corps
are overwhelmingly financially clueless, 
as a generality. 

"Corporate profits have leveled off at record highs as mark to fantasy accounting fraud, condoned and encouraged by the Federal Reserve, along with loan loss reserve depletion and $5 billion of risk free profits from parking deposits at the Fed..."

Plus massive stock buybacks financed with borrowed money,
cheered on by media pundits
who don't know shit about what they are supporting,
like the News and Record's Allen Johnson and Doug Clark.

"...QEternity, Wall Street’s high frequency trading supercomputers, record levels of margin debt, [borrowed cash for stock buybacks], a dash of delusion, and a helping of clueless dupes have taken the stock market to another bubble high."
"The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak..."
"The little people are bearing the burden of the Obamacare insurance premium increases.

Without medical cost cuts
supporting the largest union in the country, 
otherwise known as the American Medical Association,
which is a parasite upon our economy, 
which the news media can't seem to admit
while they make bank on pharmaceutical advertising. 

...The anger among the former middle class is simmering below the surface, as [Federal Reserve] policies further impoverish the multitudes... 

The U.S. government remains fully captured by Wall Street. 

...As long as EBT cards, Visas and Mastercards continue to function, there will be no outrage from the techno-narcissistic, debt addicted, math challenged, willfully ignorant masses."
"While most people get lost in the minutia of day to day existence and supposed Ivy League thought leaders are consumed with their own reputations and wealth, apparent stability will morph into terrifying volatility in an instant. The normalcy bias being practiced by an entire country will be shattered in a reality storm of consequences."

If Bernard Madoff
distributed money received from new investors to older investors
until there wasn’t enough money to continue,
does Social Security operate under the same structure
with mandatory participation?

Should costs exceed incoming revenues sooner,
if millions of Boomers involuntarily retire
and apply for early Social Security benefits during an economic decline,
as average income falls and debt and medical costs to income ratios spike?

Are Baby Boomers going to get more or less than they think,
if the supply of what they want to sell exceeds demand
as they exchange assets for needed goods and services
in the same era?

If workers earn, pay taxes, spend, save and invest,
while retirees divest, downsize, budget
and draw income and healthcare benefits,
what’s going to happen when more retirees want
what fewer workers may not be able to deliver?

Create a higher likelihood of a better present
by securing need and achieving want,
in the shortest time with the least risk, for as long as possible,
by thinking of what and when relative to what was,
and what may happen after what could happen next.