Sunday, February 9, 2020

Concerning the Wuhan Coronavirus; "1918 and SARS", from "What to Do Now, CPA Continuing Education Edition", 2003 Edition by George Hartzman

Past: 1.  In 1918 and 1919, the most lethal influenza pandemic ever may have killed approximately 675,000 in the United States, and between 20 to 50 and 100 million worldwide, occurred in three waves, beginning in Europe.

The first wave was relatively small in scope and seemed to have significantly eased during the summer of 1918.

In late August of 1918, the second wave of the flu began in much higher numbers in several different parts of the world at the same time, peaking in the colder months of October and November, coinciding with “flu season”.

The third wave primarily occurred in the southern hemisphere in the first half of 1919, which also correlated to the onset of winter.

2. The influenza pandemic of 1918 and 1919 had a mortality rate of about 2.5%.  2½ people died in every 100 that caught the flu.

By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 20 to 26 percent of Americans come down with the flu during each flu season, which typically lasts from November to March.

3. Similar Flu-like epidemics occurred in 1729, 1781, 1830, 1857, 1889, 1957, 1968 and 1989.

4. A study on the economic effects of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic by Elizabeth Brainerd and Mark V. Siegler suggests that the flu deaths of 1918-19 were a “significant predictor of business failures in 1919 and 1920.”

“Factors in the hospital environment have worked to amplify this efficient transmission considerably. In addition, though SARS has a high case fatality (around 15%), it allows enough of its victims to survive long enough to spread the disease to others – an effective survival strategy for a new virus.”

- World Health Organization, June 26, 2003

Present: 1.  SARS is caused by a virus, as was the flu in 1918.  Both are respiratory illnesses and are caused by coughing and close contact, both originated in the same geographic region and appear to be a mutation of an animal virus that passed to humans.

2. According to Chinese scientists at the Key Science and Technology Group under the National Task Force for SARS Control and Prevention, SARS can exist outside a living body in temperatures of 75.2 degrees Fahrenheit for 5 days, 98.6 degrees for 4 days, and 90 minutes at 132.8 degrees.

No such information on the Wuhan Coronavirus currently exists

3. The outbreak of SARS appears to have significantly eased at the onset of the summer of 2003, which may mirror the influenza outbreak in the summer of 1918.   SARS, like the common cold, may be seasonal, dissipating in the hot summer months and surviving longest in the winter when people congregate indoors.

On July 5, WHO declared the SARS outbreak contained

If the the Wuhan Coronavirus may not cause sickness at higher temperatures like the flu, 
chances are it may spread without detection when dormant until temperatures fall
if not contained by summer.

4. According to the World Health Organization, as of June 7th 2003, the average global mortality rate of SARS was currently 15%, 6 times more than the flu of 1918, but does not appear to be as contagious.

Future: Like the economic effects caused by the dissemination of news in East Asia during the outbreak of SARS in the Spring of 2003, the ability to almost instantly transmit news of infectious outbreaks to large audiences worldwide may exponentially compound the economic effects of a recurrence of SARS in the fall of 2003, even though the overall effect of the virus could be relatively mild in comparison to some past epidemics.

The Wuhan Coronavirus may be artificial, as in created in a science lab 

What to Do Now
CPA Continuing Education Edition
“The Application of Logic-Based Philosophy and Risk Management Theory in Economics”
2003 Edition, 4th Quarter, 2nd Revision
George Hartzman