Excerpted:
STATE OF THE CITY REPORT __ _ _____ DR. KEITH G. DEBBAGE
________________________________________________________________________ i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE
· Public policy makers and economic development practitioners have become increasingly concerned with maintaining and improving the quality of life of their political jurisdictions as a way to maintain their competitive advantage. Greensboro is no exception to this rule.
· The overall purpose of this report is to provide an annual update of the Greensboro performance metrics first identified in the 2003 State of the City Report. The 2014 Update focuses only on the Greensboro metrics. In 2016, a more comprehensive State of the City Report will be published that compares Greensboro to our peer cities.
· Part of the agenda is to stimulate discussion and to educate the general public about the overall performance of Greensboro. The long-term goal for the city of Greensboro is to see increased efficiency, progress and improvement over time for each of the selected metrics.
B. METHODOLOGY
· The benchmark indicators were chosen based on consultation with the Greensboro Partnership and are consistent with the metrics used in prior State of the City Reports with a few exceptions. The list of benchmark indicators includes measures that capture population and demographics, economic growth, education, and health and wellness.
· All the metrics are reported for 2012 unless otherwise indicated.
· It is important to note that data on average wage rates by industry, tax base, high school drop-out rates, and health and wellness are only available at the county level.
C. MAJOR FINDINGS
THE OVERALL ‘STATE OF THE CITY’ IS ONE OF ON-GOING RECOVERY
· Much like the rest of the nation, Greensboro continues to experience a fledgling recovery of sorts as the economy continues to turnaround although we continue to face some significant challenges.
STATE OF THE CITY REPORT __ _ _____ DR. KEITH G. DEBBAGE
________________________________________________________________________ ii
POPULATION GROWTH RATES CONTINUED TO BE POSITIVE BUT LAG BEHIND OTHER LARGE CITIES IN NORTH CAROLINA
· Greensboro experienced a modest population growth rate of 1.3% between 2011 and 2012 but lagged behind other major cities in the state including Charlotte (2.5%), Raleigh (2.3%), and Durham (2.3%).
GREENSBORO IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A MORE DIVERSE CITY
· Only 47.3% of Greensboro’s population was classified as white in 2012 – part of a three year decline in market share from a five year high of 52.6% in 2010. By contrast, the percent of the Greensboro population classified as African-American was 42.7% - the highest such share since beginning the State of the City series in 2003. The percentage of the population classified as Hispanic has also steadily increased of late from 6.6% in 2010 to a record high of 7.8% in 2012. Although multi-cultural cities are frequently more tolerant and innovative such a trend can also pose major human resource challenges for both public and private sector employers in the city.
MEDIAN EARNINGS AND PER CAPITA INCOME CONTINUE TO STAGNATE ESPECIALLY RELATIVE TO SOME NEARBY CITIES
· Median earnings in Greensboro declined slightly (i.e., -0.3%) from 2011 to 2012 even though Durham (13.7%) and Raleigh (5.5%) experienced robust growth. That said, the growth in median earnings was more modest in Charlotte (0.9%) and Winston-Salem experienced a slight decline (-0.2).
· Per capita income in Greensboro declined by -1.2% from 2011 to 2012 while Durham (10.7%), Raleigh (4.8%) and to a lesser extent Winston-Salem (1.7%) all experienced noticeable growth. By contrast, per capita income in Charlotte declined 0.1%. Unlike earnings, per capita income includes more than just wages and salaries since it also includes income derived from interest, dividend, rent and transfer payments. The substantive decline in dividend investment capital due to the financial crisis and national recession of the late 2000s may have negatively impacted per capita income in both Greensboro and Charlotte.
GREENSBORO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE THAT INCLUDES HIGH-PAYING JOBS
· Greensboro experienced a substantive increase in the percentage of its workforce employed in manufacturing growing from 11.8% in 2011 to 13.1% in 2012. Furthermore, manufacturing wage rates ($56,663) were higher than for any other industry except financial services. A recent report prepared by Michael Walden at North Carolina State University identified advanced manufacturing as a significant employment opportunity statewide for the next several years.
STATE OF THE CITY REPORT __ _ _____ DR. KEITH G. DEBBAGE
________________________________________________________________________ iii
THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY APPEARS TO BE RECOVERING
· After some lean years, the financial services industry appears to be re-emerging from the prolonged slump triggered by the Great Recession. Other than manufacturing, the financial services experienced the largest relative increase in percent jobs growing from 6.7% of all jobs in 2011 to 8.0% in 2012. It also generated the highest average wage rate of any major industry in the local economy (i.e., $58,949) and the largest relative wage gains (i.e., 6.0%).
EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN ONE-QUARTER OF ALL JOBS IN GREENSBORO BUT AVERAGE WAGES CONTINUE TO STAGNATE
· Education and health services continue to be major industries in the local economy accounting for over one-quarter of all jobs in Greensboro. The overall market share of education and health services has experienced a five year growth trajectory increasing from 21.2% of all jobs in 2008 to 26.1% in 2012. The downside of this growth is that average wage rates have been stagnant since 2008 with the lowest net gains of any industry from 2011 to 2012 (i.e., 0.7%).
THE ARTS & ENTERTAINMENT, ACCOMMODATION, AND FOOD & DRINK SECTOR NEEDS A SHOT-IN-THE-ARM
· Greensboro has experienced a four year decline in the share of all jobs attributable to this sector, declining from a five year high of 12.8% in 2009 to 10.7% of all jobs in 2012. The ongoing efforts to build the Tanger Performing Arts Center and related hotel development may well remedy this problem. That said, this sector generated the lowest average wage rates of any major industry group included in this Report (i.e., $15,395).
TAX BASE GROWTH IS FLAT
· Partly as a result of the 2012 revaluation and subsequent appeals of value, the Guilford County tax base declined -0.2% from $37.1 billion in 2011/12 to $37.0 billion in 2012/13.
POVERTY RATES CREEP BACK UP
· The percentage of the city population in poverty increased from 19.6% in 2011 to 20.0% in 2012 meaning one in five Greensboro residents were in poverty. (Note: for a family of four with two children under the age of 18, the household is considered poor if total household income is below $23,283 in 2012).
STATE OF THE CITY REPORT __ _ _____ DR. KEITH G. DEBBAGE
________________________________________________________________________ iv
HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT RATES REMAIN VERY LOW
· The Guilford County County school system high school dropout rate remained one of the lowest rates in all of North Carolina for major urban school systems declining from 2.71% in 2010/11 to 2.15% in 2011/12.
HEALTH AND WELLNESS GENERATED MIXED SIGNALS
· The infant mortality rate increased from 7.4 per 1,000 live births in 2011 to 7.9 in 2012 although the teenage pregnancy rate declined from 35.6 per 1,000 to 34.1 – part of an encouraging long-term downward trend.
View the full report via PDF file by clicking here: http://greensboropartnership.org/pdf/stateofcity14.pdf
And expect me to refer back to it a lot.
Hat Tip: George:
Continue reading Part 2: W.E. Heasley On The Keith G Debbage, State Of The City Report
