Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Rob Bencini To The Rescue?

In the article, Future shock by former economic developer for Guilford County government, Rob Bencini, he talks about disappearing jobs being replaced by new products and technologies.

Don't put too much faith in 3-D printers. They're really cool and I'd love to own one but as a manufacturing and production tool they are too often lacking. There are some things they do quite well but when working in plastics, high speed injection molding is far faster, every bit as accurate, cheaper to mass produce and while still more expensive going in, much more reliable. And when it comes to metals, 3-D printers simply can't make high strength metal parts capable of standing up to hard use and long wear cycles.

And 3-D printers don't do wood. Fact is: they don't do metal either. Well, not pure metals. The metal parts made by 3-D printers are a mix of finely ground metal powders mixed with fast drying epoxies to hold them together.

How do I know these things? I have a brother and several uncles who are tool and die makers working mostly in the weapons industry who have all used 3-D printers as prototype makers to test fit parts for 20 plus years. And the intricate little hollows 3-D printers are known for making? Let Marshall Eakes of American Extruded Plastics show you what a Wire EDM machine can do. Most of what can be done with the 3-D printer can be done with a Wire EDM and the resulting part isn't simply a prototype.

That said, Mr Bencini makes some excellent points that myself and others been making for years. For example: on the push to convert Greensboro and the Triad to a logistics hub:

"Despite promises of a multitude of high-paying jobs, warehousing represents the bulk of the jobs in the growth industry of logistics. This is why logistics certifications would pay dividends, local residents were told. The Logistics Certificate would raise the level of knowledge and, therefore, the earnings capacity of the worker. It would provide more job security.

The reality turned out to be something different: A laborer enters the workforce at FedEx Ground making $11.10 per hour. After completing the logistics curriculum, filled with high hopes for the future, he’s still worth $11.10 an hour. And for every person entering this line of work, there are two more waiting for an opening."

In 2001 when Roch Smith Jr ran for mayor of Greensboro he opposed incentives for FedEx. Years later Roch would look back and write:

"When Greensboro was debating the merits of spending what has become nearly half a billion dollars on tax incentives and capital outlays of public funds to accommodate the FedEx "regional overnight cargo sorting hub," the invincible gorilla in the discussion was the promise of hundreds and hundreds of jobs. 600 new jobs were to be filled when the hub opened, 750 new jobs would be created in its first two years of operations, 1,500 new jobs a few years after that... we were told. The mantra was repeated by op-ed writers, reporters, economic developers and every elected official in the county. It became indisputable gospel.

While the new hub opened in 2009, the number employed by FedEx four years later remains nearly the same as before the new facility opened. The new jobs did not materialize. The promises were hot air."

And yet with Greensboro being in the center of the 2nd hungriest metropolitan statical area in the nation with over 21% living in poverty and the highest unemployment in the State of North Carolina the logistics train continues running full speed ahead towards a cliff at the end of an uncompleted track. Like I've said so many times before:

"They talk about transportation hubs... for what? Empty trailers?"

I mean seriously, what do we need a logistics hub for if we don't have manufacturing? To ship stuff in? If we've nothing to ship out we've no money to buy stuff to ship in. Believe it or not, after all these years of talk of trickle down, service sector and information/knowledge based economics, trade still requires real tangible objects with which to trade. Who would have thunk it? Freaking morons!

Rob Bencini writes of a cluster strategy and explains how the 12 county region was put together but he points out that in reality this 12 county cluster strategy  is killing Greensboro. A better cluster strategy would be to cluster "Pods of small niche market companies who are inter-related..." 

Again, David Hoggard, someone who actually works for a living has a clue.

Mr Bencini also writes:

"But someone with an eye on the future will realize that robots will be doing most of the assembly line and distribution work within five to eight years. How many of these schools offer courses in robotic theory? Robotic repair? Anything?"

It was, after all, robots that filled the 1500 new jobs at Greensboro's new FedEx hub just as robots do all the work in this Louisville, Kentucky United Parcel Service hub. So who fixes these robots? Highly paid specialists who are most likely flown in from out of town.



Rob Bencini continues:

"In March of 2009, the chairman of the Guilford County Board of Commissioners proposed that the county give 100 percent tax rebates to anyone who built any commercial real estate improvements — new, expanded or upfit. The intent was to invigorate the local economy through investment in real estate development by removing the local property taxes on those structural improvements for the first three years. It was such a sweet gesture for developers and builders — and oh-so-wrong on so many levels."

He adds:

"Secondly, the incentive went to the builder and developer — not any lessee who might rent any property...  No legal counsel from any level of government would green-light the proposal. The concept died a quiet death."

And yet that is exactly what took place when the Greensboro City Council approved incentives for Gerblings, Oakley and a host of other incentives passed in the last 2 years. All the money went directly to developers and not to the companies whose names were attached to the incentive packages.

Will men like Rob Bencini be able to apply the brakes, stop the train and turn it around before it is too late? I hate to be a pessimest but 57 years of living in Greensboro has conditioned me to believe Greensboro's leaders only stop when the train jumps the track.

Hat tip: Fec