https://user-kcmpnye.cld.bz/COG-Comprehensive-Annual-Financial-Report/II/ |
The discount rate predicts the present value of future payments.
The recession in 2008/9 erased much of the gains documented over the last 30 years.
Greensboro's pension plan useS a 7.2 % discount rate to 'guess' how much the money in the pension fund will make over time.
"if the assumed discount rate is lowered, then Greensboro's pension will appear to be more expensive over time on teh assumption the fund will earn less money over time, meaning more taxpayer money will need to be contributed.
If the expectation falls to 6.2%, the plan will need $117,75,680 more taxpayer money to provide future retirement income streams to folks like 'retired' City Manager Jim Westmoreland, who oversaw the fleecing of local taxpayers for downtown real estate owner profits.
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy contends the “risk free” discount rate should be only 3%, which would about double the $117,75,680 guess by the City's bean counters.
Our 'leaders' don't address this issue, as their positions are dependent on uninformed taxpayer base who let them hand out cheese to their donors.
At the federal and global levels, if financial markets were to falter for more than a short amount of time, too many uneducated onlookers could get the idea in their heads that they've been had.
The answer was, is and will most likely continue to be artificial stability created by central banks, just like the last episode leading into the end of 2018, which, during a federal shutdown, massive political uncertainty widespread corporate earnings warnings and falling economic indicators, ended with;
The fed and the presidents working group. Valuations haven't mattered since 2009. They can inject a couple trillion in short order without anyone knowing other then the insiders who are allowed to trade on it. https://t.co/ft5GtFebQL— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 15, 2019
On the flip-side:— Paranoid Bull (@paranoidbull) January 15, 2019
The Fed has indicated it might be more accommodative than people previously thought (words not actions).
The President’s Working Group met and who knows if they did anything after that.
More talk about China.
There has been a bounce off the bottom.
Market sentiment by $SPX level:
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 15, 2019
2900: Bears are dumb we go to 3200
2800: BTD
2700: BTD
2600: WTF?
2500: Fed F***ed up
2400: It's The Algos!
2350: PPT NOW!
2400: Thx Mnuchin
2500: Thx Powell
2600: Bear market over
It's weird how our community paper and elected officials advocate for public gambling with little chance of winning. Mega Millions odds; one in 302,575,350, and Powerball odds; one in 292 million. Congratulate the few who win, sucking in the rest who won't. https://t.co/xD2ChVcqat
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 13, 2019
At Taxpayers’ Expense, Fed Paid Banks $38.5 Billion in Interest on “Reserves” in 2018. Here’s How | Wolf Street https://t.co/qGKwgkM92w
— Irene๐ (@goldmarketgirl) January 11, 2019
Rising profit expectations: Bullish
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 11, 2019
Slashed profit expectations: Bullish. https://t.co/dduSV179Sx
"[QE3] is a subsidy for the rich and the quick and for the big banks, and it’s not a subsidy that helps the working men and women of our country. Now, subsidies are very hard to undo" - Dick Fisher, Sept 2013 FOMC meeting
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 11, 2019
S&P +10.4% since @stevenmnuchin1 spoke to the Plunge Protection Team
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 10, 2019
The S&P 500 is up 7% thus far during the government shutdown, on pace for its best shutdown performance ever. $SPX pic.twitter.com/aws33rWi56
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 10, 2019
More disappointing numbers out of the euro area this morning with manufactiring output in #France down 2.2% on a year ago in November, following the weakened PMI signal. Output is running 0.5% below Q3 so far in Q4 pic.twitter.com/U0OubjqeqW
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) January 10, 2019
Gundlach warned that the national debt swelled in fiscal 2018. He likened it to every household in America maxing out three $5,000 credit cards. ...“Are we really growing at all, or is it just debt-based?”
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 10, 2019
Almost half of the 134 U.S. ceos said they expect the U.S. economy to be in recession by the end of 2019. That forecast was echoed by almost half of the chief financial officers who participated in the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey in December."
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 10, 2019
In other words, the world's financial markets are pretty fake, and when is the Fed, BOJ etc... going to step back in to keep most pacified, and keep those at the top at the top. https://t.co/yuaAw5r8FK
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 10, 2019
When national debts have once been accumulated
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 10, 2019
[there has never been] a single instance
of their having been fairly paid
The liberation of the public revenue...
has always been brought about by bankruptcy
though frequently by a pretended payment [through inflation]
Adam Smith https://t.co/cNMv2aRh4I
4 day central bank jawbone attack:
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 9, 2019
Powell: Flexible on bal. sheet
Bostic: Only 1 hike
Mester: no urgency to raise
Bullard: Hikes cause recession
Rosengren: Patient
Evans: Wait
BOJ: We may need to print more.
And that's how it's done. pic.twitter.com/9IZEO5vn9Q
THE GREY BARS ARE RECESSIONS
— OCCUPY WISDOM (@OccupyWisdom) January 8, 2019
THE GREY BARS ARE RECESSIONS
THE GREY BARS ARE RECESSIONS
THE GREY BARS ARE RECESSIONS
UNEMPLOYMENT IS A LAGGING INDICATOR
UNEMPLOYMENT IS A LAGGING INDICATOR
UNEMPLOYMENT IS A LAGGING INDICATOR
UNEMPLOYMENT IS A LAGGING INDICATOR pic.twitter.com/oMhdQgBBVT
Got this one by email from an e-quaintance (out there somewhere)... pic.twitter.com/ITkzXJZXuz
— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) January 8, 2019
The machines didn’t do this. We did this. We willingly gave ourselves to the Powells and the Draghis and the Bernankes and the Yellens. We willingly sold our soul to the Narrative devil. https://t.co/bPR4inSf2N by @EpsilonTheory
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 7, 2019
The Ugly Truth https://t.co/2JNxH7IuBv via @northmantrader
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 6, 2019
Free market price discovery requires an accounting of bubbles and the realities of structural problems which remain unresolved. Central banks exist to prevent the consequences of excess to come to fruition and give license to politicians to avoid addressing structural problems"
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 6, 2019
"The only thing that has really grown as a result of all this cheap money and intervention is debt: Corporate debt has doubled since 2007. Government debt is expanding with no end in sight having risen by another $2 trillion in the first 2 years of the Trump administration.
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 6, 2019
don’t mistake this rally for anything but for what it really is: Central banks again coming to the rescue of stressed markets and their action and words matter in heavy oversold markets."
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 6, 2019
When markets tumbled in 2015 and 2016, global central banks embarked on the largest combined intervention effort in history of over $5 trillion between 2016 and 2017, giving us a grand total of over $15 trillion in central bank balance sheet courtesy FOMC, ECB and BOJ"
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 6, 2019
Market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central bank jawboning and not organic growth"
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) January 6, 2019
Ingenious Free French Army use a fork lift battering ram to break through the doors of France's Ministry of Finance and Economy. pic.twitter.com/EXzXTElwx5
— Bellingdog (@Bellingdawg) January 5, 2019
13. What made private financiers able to print money wasn't just the removal of public removals, but successively larger bailouts by government. The gov't spending and taxing authority, no longer used for public social priorities, was quietly placed in service of financiers,
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) January 5, 2019
So...they basically set-up a special meeting involving the three latest Fed Chairs to pump-up a panicked "market." I don't remember reading about this strategy in the free-market capitalism manual. ๐
— Limerick King (@TheLimerickKing) January 4, 2019
Only during recessions have we seen ISM dropping 5-index points or more in a month in newer history.
— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) January 3, 2019
Ouch! pic.twitter.com/OLcKOUtWDC
We shall call this Everything Bubble the QE bubble #FederalReserve #everythingBubble #QEbubble https://t.co/PLRwDnVk0L
— Inspired (@Palinspired) January 2, 2019
A company wants to hire a new chief financial officer. Each candidate is asked just one question. ‘What does two plus two equal?’ Each candidate answers four, with the exception of the one they hire. His answer was: ‘What number did you have in mind?’”
— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) December 31, 2018
The cumulative negative surprise in December's activity surveys is another all-time record. The bad news is that the closest comp is September 2008. pic.twitter.com/4eZC4eQ4hC
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) January 1, 2019
When you read that "the Fed should hold rates to allow deleveraging", see what keeping low rates has done so far: Massive increase in debt.
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) December 30, 2018
Low rates are not a tool to reduce debt, they are a tool to incentivize more debt. pic.twitter.com/VIYUURvzS9
Government debt as share of GDP.
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) December 30, 2018
US
2008: 73.7%
2018: 108%
France
2008: 68.7%
2018: 96.3%
UK
2008: 49.9%
2018: 86.3%
Germany
2008: 65.1%
2018: 59.8%
China
2008: 27%
2018: 51.2%
India
2008: 74.5%
2018: 68.9%
Japan
2008: 183%
2018: 236%
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) December 30, 2018
~ Upton Sinclair
When enough get upset enough, it will create change https://t.co/BpT5GYABR9
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) December 29, 2018
The people of France have decided that the Banque de France is somehow responsible for their plight.
— PeakProsperity.com (@chrismartenson) December 29, 2018
Well, that's accurate.
Central banks do not create wealth, they redistribute it. Away from the 99% and to the 1%. #ReverseRobinHood https://t.co/9pz0hb1XPH
Statements by high officials are practically always misleading,
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) December 29, 2018
when they are designed to bolster a falling market.
Gerald M Loeb
SANTELLI: For years, "we've trusted that [central-bank chiefs] would come to the rescue. But there comes a point where enough is enough. .. Someone needs, once and for all, to let the Bernanke/Yellen put expire. And I think he’s doing a good job." @CNBC pic.twitter.com/qRA6xzTj7Q
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 28, 2018
"Democracy today really means an elected oligarchy of economic and political elites, in which central areas of society, especially the economy, are fundamentally removed from any democratic control and accountability
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) December 29, 2018
The fed will bail them out, again https://t.co/oL4hW8NRWu
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) December 29, 2018
All the way up to 0 https://t.co/PGOCrTOqax
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) December 29, 2018
ICYMI: "While we don’t observe conditions to indicate a 'bottom' from a full-cycle standpoint, we do observe conditions permissive of a scorching market rebound. Yes, that means one or more daily moves of ~100-150 points on SPX and 900-1300 on the Dow. You think I’m kidding." https://t.co/jrKepMpSHN
— John P. Hussman (@hussmanjp) December 26, 2018
85% of all trading is controlled by machines, models, or passive investing formulas, creating an unprecedented trading herd that moves in unison and is blazingly fast. At the same time, liquidity in S&P 500 futures has dropped 70% over the past year alone. https://t.co/w1Up3zh6rI pic.twitter.com/lF3GWHL7hT
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) December 26, 2018
Two Stock Market Pictures; Monday, December 10, 2018; "Instead of higher highs and higher lows, now it looks like lower highs and lower lows" and yesterday's close, and stuff I ran across in between https://t.co/QRKVJnc4IX
— Abner Doon (@Aenbrnood) December 25, 2018