Showing posts with label Hyman Minsky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hyman Minsky. Show all posts

Thursday, August 25, 2016

The farther the red lines go down, the longer financial markets don't follow, the bigger the disequilibrium between reality and its reflection



http://www.zerohedge.com/
If the natural cycle of laissez faire capitalism 
revolves between risk and aversion, 
what should happen if government intervention perverts the process?

Ponzi finance units must increase outstanding debt
in order to meet financial obligations.

A transition occurs over the course of an expansion
as increasingly risky positions are validated by the booming economy
that renders the built in margins of error superfluous,
encouraging adoption of riskier positions.

Eventually, either financing costs rise, or income comes in below expectations,
leading to defaults on payment commitments.

Hyman Minsky
Believed excessive debt causes financial crises

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Japan Machinery Orders and China Imports from Hong Kong; Soros shorts Financial Markets and comment

http://www.zerohedge.com/

We were taught in Economics 101
that countries could not for long sustain large ever-growing trade deficits

…our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich family
that possesses an immense farm

In order to consume 4% more than they produce,
that's the trade deficit,
we have, day by day been both selling pieces of the farm
and increasing the mortgage on what we still own

Warren Buffett

Unbelievable, no?;


"...George Soros has returned to trading, lured by opportunities to profit from what he sees as coming economic troubles.

If life is a room of open doors leading to other open doors,
do what you and/or others do or don’t determine what doors stay open,
or lock you in or out?

Worried about the outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments...

Are chances better
for players who more accurately calculate probabilities the farthest into the future?

...Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors often view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.

The moves are a significant shift for Soros, who earned fame with a bet against the British pound in 1992, a trade that led to $1 billon of profits..."

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Since the 2008/9 financial crisis, the world's central banks, largest financial institutions, wealthy investors, advertising dependent media, paid for economists and entrenched politicians dependent on campaign cash/ bribes etc..., have been kicking the economic reckoning can.

Quantitative Easing caused low interest rates to prop up real estate, financial markets and social spending by financing public deficits with money created out of thin air.

Artificially imposed stability creates ever larger levels of real instability, no different than those with addictions to harmful substances.

Monetary heroin.

Most global central bank balance sheets have at least doubled

Like Greece did after entering the Euro, many smaller European countries enjoyed the benefits of borrowing far more than could be repaid.

Other countries who could, took advantage of low interest rates while printing money to keep their respective currencies low relative to the US dollar.

When the Federal Reserve announced it would stop printing, US long term interest rates rose, affecting rates across the globe.

Then corporations stepped in with share buybacks.

Then England Japan, Switzerland and then Europe among others stepped into the printing breach.

If values fall, investors should likely increase the extrication of monies from what appear to be more risky ventures, allocating heavily to perceived safe havens, compounding affects and triggering bank runs.

The more investors begin to realize Quantitative Easing (printing money) didn't work, the sooner Emperors will appear to be holding up a financial house of cards, forcing the house to collapse with greater speed.

As the global economy is clearly slowing, many who didn't understand yesterday are suddenly awake, looking at naked Empires, now that the veil of QE can be seen for what it is.

A Minsky moment

The world faces a massive debt restructuring, where investors and financial institutions take the hit instead of government bailouts like last time.

It's just a question of how and when a very pushed on string snaps back in the 1%'s faces.

This has taken far too long, which means the consequences are likely greater.

How are the parents of the young also going to pay for their elders at the same time?



If there are more than 3 workers contributing to Social Security for every beneficiary, how will less than 2 workers be able to pay for more as the Baby Boom retires?

How is Zika etc... going to affect the ability of smaller generations
to support all the nice things we've promised ourselves
to be paid for by our children?

Was it justifiable for the baby boom to promise themselves tens of trillions of unfunded benefits, like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, for future generations to pay for?

Human beings are… of two persuasions
the first would spend tomorrow what they earn today
the second would spend today what they hope to earn tomorrow

From this…arise all conflicts that lead to economic crises
to panics, depressions, violent and revolutionary transfers of wealth
and perhaps most wars

Freeman Tilden

If workers earn, pay taxes, spend, save and invest while retirees divest, downsize, budget and draw income and healthcare benefits, what’s going to happen when more retirees want what fewer workers may not be able to deliver?

Are Baby Boomers going to get more or less than they think, if the supply of what they want to sell exceeds demand, as they exchange assets for needed goods and services at relatively the same time?

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
 brought on by credit expansion

The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner
 as a result of  abandonment of credit expansion
 or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved

Ludwig von Mises

Most financial industry economists considered warnings of financial bubbles unproven, non-existent or exaggerated until afterward.

If there are at least 15,000 professional American economists, and less than 1% predicted the 2008/9 financial crisis, most financial industry economic prognostications appear to be relatively useless.

If investment returns are dependent on rising home values and liquidity supplied by new and existing investors, what should happen if incoming investment slows and lack of liquidity creates a confidence crisis?

Ponzi finance units must increase outstanding debt
in order to meet financial obligations

A transition occurs over the course of an expansion
as increasingly risky positions are validated by the booming economy
that renders the built in margins of error superfluous
encouraging adoption of riskier positions

Eventually, either financing costs rise
or income comes in below expectations
leading to defaults on payment commitments

Hyman Minsky

The federal government stabilized the economy by borrowing from relatively younger American's and their children who may not reap the prosperity of their parents.

Corruption of the political, capitalist and information systems negatively influenced economic performance and consumer behavior through legislation, budget appropriation, regulation and taxation to benefit a few at the expense of many.

A democracy will continue to exist
 up until the time that voters discover
 that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury

From that moment on
the majority always votes for the candidates
who promise the most benefits…
with the result that every democracy
will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy…

…nations always progressed through the following sequence

From bondage to spiritual faith
from spiritual faith to great courage
from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance
from abundance to complacency
from complacency to apathy
 from apathy to dependence
from dependence back into bondage

Unknown

If Bernard Madoff distributed money from wealthy newer investors to pay earlier investors until there wasn't enough money to continue, does the US government operate under the same structure with mandatory participation for all?

Socioeconomic disharmonies will likely increase.