Is Social Security Safe From The Shutdown?

Like lots of retirees I've begun to wonder how long I can expect my Social Security check to continue to arrive via direct deposit each month so I decided to research the subject.

If you believe the Social Security Administration's claim that there exists a fully funded Social Security Trust Fund then we've nothing to worry about, right?  https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/WhatAreTheTrust.htm

But what if you believe the long told story that the Johnson Administration did away with the Social Security Trust Fund and put the money in the General Budget? What then? Is our money still safe? The Social Security Administration replies to that question thusly: https://www.ssa.gov/history/InternetMyths2.html

Sadly that doesn't really tell us if our checks will continue to come or not. You see, a budget must still be approved each year.

But there is good news from the folks at Kiplinger who write: https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T051-C000-S003-government-shutdown-delay-social-security-benefits.html?fbclid=IwAR0nwOswkVPoJe_zsPCMkRKKapaVhM0bZJsw3dZKexzpGmPIoAecl-qD_UA

"Retirees who depend on their monthly Social Security checks to make ends meet can breathe a sigh of relief: Benefits won't be affected by the partial government shutdown. The Social Security Administration is already funded through September 2019, so services remain in effect and benefits checks will continue to arrive on time, according to the Social Security administration."

But what about after September 2019-- is Social Security still fully funded? From a letter dated September 25, 2018 written by Michelle King, Deputy Commissioner for Budget, Finance, and Management to Mr Mick Mulvaney, Director Office of Management and Budget: https://www.ssa.gov/agency/shutdown/materials/contingency-plan-09-25-18.pdf

So is the money there or not?

And if the money is there and there is no one working in the Social Security Administration offices come September 2019 will the checks still go out?

That is supposed to be the Social Security Administration's shutdown contingency plan but I'm not sure such a plan really exists and if it does exist is it even workable if there in no one there to do the work. Journalists love to write things like:  https://www.thisisinsider.com/government-shutdown-2018-social-security-checks-still-paid-2018-1

"Funding for the programs under Titles II, XVI, and XVIII of the Social Security Act will continue, even in the event of a lapse in appropriations," the plan says."

But just because the plan says it does that make it so?

Maybe it is time we old folk started demanding answers.

How are the parents of the young also going to pay for their elders at the same time?

If there are more than 3 workers contributing to Social Security for every beneficiary, how will less than 2 workers be able to pay for more as the Baby Boom retires?

How is Zika etc... going to affect the ability of smaller generations

to support all the nice things we've promised ourselves

to be paid for by our children?

Was it justifiable for the baby boom to promise themselves tens of trillions of unfunded benefits, like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, for future generations to pay for?

Human beings are… of two persuasions

the first would spend tomorrow what they earn today

the second would spend today what they hope to earn tomorrow

From this…arise all conflicts that lead to economic crises

to panics, depressions, violent and revolutionary transfers of wealth

and perhaps most wars

Freeman Tilden

If workers earn, pay taxes, spend, save and invest while retirees divest, downsize, budget and draw income and healthcare benefits, what’s going to happen when more retirees want what fewer workers may not be able to deliver?

Are Baby Boomers going to get more or less than they think, if the supply of what they want to sell exceeds demand, as they exchange assets for needed goods and services at relatively the same time?

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom

 brought on by credit expansion

The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner

 as a result of  abandonment of credit expansion

 or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved

Ludwig von Mises

Most financial industry economists considered warnings of financial bubbles unproven, non-existent or exaggerated until afterward.

If there are at least 15,000 professional American economists, and less than 1% predicted the 2008/9 financial crisis, most financial industry economic prognostications appear to be relatively useless.

If investment returns are dependent on rising home values and liquidity supplied by new and existing investors, what should happen if incoming investment slows and lack of liquidity creates a confidence crisis?

Ponzi finance units must increase outstanding debt

in order to meet financial obligations

A transition occurs over the course of an expansion

as increasingly risky positions are validated by the booming economy

that renders the built in margins of error superfluous

encouraging adoption of riskier positions

Eventually, either financing costs rise

or income comes in below expectations

leading to defaults on payment commitments

Hyman Minsky

The federal government stabilized the economy by borrowing from relatively younger American's and their children who may not reap the prosperity of their parents.

Corruption of the political, capitalist and information systems negatively influenced economic performance and consumer behavior through legislation, budget appropriation, regulation and taxation to benefit a few at the expense of many.

A democracy will continue to exist

 up until the time that voters discover

 that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury

From that moment on

the majority always votes for the candidates

who promise the most benefits…

with the result that every democracy

will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy…

…nations always progressed through the following sequence

From bondage to spiritual faith

from spiritual faith to great courage

from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance

from abundance to complacency

from complacency to apathy

 from apathy to dependence

from dependence back into bondage

Unknown

If Bernard Madoff distributed money from wealthy newer investors to pay earlier investors until there wasn't enough money to continue, does the US government operate under the same structure with mandatory participation for all?

Socioeconomic disharmonies will likely increase.